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Garden Path
by Andrew McCaskey
Quick Note today on handsets :
RF Globalnet had a link to a study by In-Stat, in five years, Wireless handsets will be a $250B market. In fact, worldwide, they are a $100B market right now. “To put this in perspective, if wireless handsets were a sovereign country, it would be the 53rd largest economy, right behind Ireland, but growing more than twice as fast as China. … The goal for wireless phone manufacturers is to make customers forget they ever tolerated a phone without the new innovations ” The greatest challenge is to just add the features different customers want without adding unneeded cost or complexity from unneeded or unwanted features.. Consumers seem ready to embrace other new features, including location-based services and Bluetooth connectivity, but only a narrow segment have interest in multimedia features and camera phone use will see a decline. ”
The comments yesterday on Net Neutrality link nicely with the cellphone business. At least in North America, why are multimedia services and the transmission of photos not turning into the cash cows that were imagined just a few years ago? It is, in the words of the Cluetrain folks, a conversation – and what’s being said is that a forced walk through a walled garden will always be as short as the consumer can make it. Instead of immediate transmission of photos from camera phones – it’s a bit of defered gratification until you can Bluetooth the photos to your laptop, bypassing the Verizon “pay per Kilobyte” photo model. Cingular is fine with net access, just not too much net access -and only through their Media Net service. You can get ‘All you can Eat ‘plans, but you have to hunt for them. T-Mobile incurs the wrath of customers who connect via their data service – which they have paid for – and then use that connectivity to talk to their end party using VoIP.
Looks to me that those who are considering a tiered internet with faster, more determanistic or reliable delivery of preferred packets from “authorized services” may want to tread lightly. The walled garden might be a trip down the garden path.
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