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Catching the Wave
by Andrew McCaskey
100,000 Testers Can Be Wrong
Sept 30th is the day for Google Wave to go wide. There are a few thousand developers who will be pulled into the mix in August – but if you check the calendar, it is not too many weeks before the first public release.
Google Wave is either going to be the biggest hit or biggest flop ever. I vote for flop.
No matter how revolutionary the communications vehicle is, or how flawed our email system is at the moment, it’s the system known or trusted with close to forty years of established base. Biggest hit status for Google wave would have 100,000 enthusiastic fans, and say, 2 billion net users that would be skeptical. If you look at the trouble that the Mozilla Foundation has had pushing Firefox past the single digits in adoption, the chances that Google Wave will have the uptake needed to replace the conventional email system. If there were 1 million switchers a DAY you are talking on the order of six years for the transition to occur.Â
Pogoplug at CES 2009
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