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The XM-Sirius and Blu-ray Path
by Andrew McCaskey
Fatal Assumptions
We all like predictability – it makes it so much easier to plan, and with care, you can optimize results with more and more efficient processes. It looks like XM-Sirius and Blu-Ray are going to be wishing that their business models and technology were a lot more predictable.
Unless the sale to Liberty Media goes through, XM-Sirius could go bankrupt this weekend. The assumption there was that the difficult to replace satellite delivery system so beloved by long distance truckers and vacationers would continue to be difficult to replace. That has turned out not to be the case, due to 3G deployment and the proliferation of the iPhone and other media players. That in turn invalidated the business model that said you would spend almost any amount of money to gain and lock in a subscriber – because you could then depend upon a decades long stream of revenue with little marginal cost to provide the service. That has turned out not to be the case, as consumers move to the next big thing. And the promise of satellite programming deterioates with more and more commercial channels and collectively less choice, just at the time when Pandora and the iPod give all the choice in the world.
As to Blu-Ray, the release of the blu-ray CD spec has resulted in a universal yawn – it’s still the same audio quality, just better error detection and correction. Not the stuff to write home about. It would have been if you assumed that people still wanted their music and data and video on a physical disk.
What other assumptions are going to be struck down in this Reset Recession ?
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