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Magnitude of the Problem
by Andrew McCaskey
The past six weeks or so I’ve spent a few thousand miles driving back and forth on the Eastern third of the US.
That’s why the auto related items are of such interest and why I tend to pull them for the podcast. There’s one common theme that involves us all, and that is the business travel and personal transport that ‘s such an integral part of our society.
And like it or not, the transition from our present installed base of something like 200 million vehicles to the next technology is going to occupy our attention for the rest of the first half of this century.
Even the most compelling economic advantages in fuel economy or environmental impact have a monumental switching costs. The management of those costs – while the economy marches on through all the other challenges of the coming decades is going to be the defining challenge for the incoming administration.
We have no option. Someone recently pointed out that if we begin drilling immediately on all offshore and Alaska fields, that the oil will belong to .. Exxon Mobile, Chevron, and Shell – not to the US. (unless we are prepared to nationalize US oil reserves for only US consumption). It would be sold wherever the oil will bring the highest price for the stockholders. The bulk of the oil would end up going to China, India, and Japan.
We need nuclear power for generation of electricity, wind and solar where it can be used, and the conversion of our entire installed base. That’s work for a decade or two in anyone’s book.
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