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WiMax – Powerful Disruption
by Andrew McCaskey
Wimax has a two year window to make it or break it. That is the approximate lead time before the LTE or other 3G technology hits the carriers in full force.
Today’s item on mobile IPTV, using Wimax as the underlying transmission and distribution technology offers promise, but there is reason to be skeptical – based not on the technology but on economics and consumer behavior.
The item a few days ago on uptake of hydrogen cars (if they existed) was telling: Only about 15 million of the 240 million automobiles in this country are replaced each year. It would take roughly 15 years of natural replacement to turnover to an new technology.
Wimax TV in vehicles would follow the same curve, much as satellite radio and other add on gadgets.
As much as we would like to imagine (most SDR listeners being early adopters all) the OEM market is what’s needed to drive this into a successful business model. And if you look at the innovation of hard wired iPod accessory sockets that have taken three or four years to be a part of automobile offerings. It might be two years too long.
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