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Blu-Ray: Not So Fast
by Andrew McCaskey
New York Times and others are starting to raise some interesting questions regarding not only the future of downloaded content, but the future of the Blu-Ray format.
It’s strange to have this sort of discussion just a few weeks after the victory of Blu-Ray in the HD delivery marketplace contest, but you may want to realize that there is a precedent in all this: The LaserDisk.
It never acheived more than 2% of the households in the US, ending up as a high end format for early adopters and videophiles, while the bulk of the market stayed on the VHS bandwagon. In a chicken and egg scenario, titles were comparatively few and the physical delivery, inventory and stocking remained challenging.
Fast forward and consider that the ubiquitous DVD plays on devices as lowly as the Walmart doorbuster specials at the $30 price point. Consider also the nearly universal market acceptance and the fact that many if not most consumers ( especially if they have a unscaling player) cannot tell the difference between DVD and HD content.
Blu-Ray has about five years to blow out these units approaching the $30 pricepoint, and bye the way also convert the back catalog of maybe 10,000 movies currently on DVD and make sure those new releases are there as well.
From the company that tried for five years to push the market into proprietary memory sticks in the chewing gum format, there’s not much chance of that.
And Verizon is laying fiber while Comcast awaits DOCSIS 3.0 with 100Mb/sec downloads.
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